Saudi Red Sea Oil Exports to Hit 3.8 Million BPD in March

Crude exports from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea are projected to climb to an unprecedented 3.8 million barrels per day in March, according to recent shipping intelligence. This sharp increase follows the disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively halted amid the escalating U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran.

As the largest crude exporter globally, Saudi Arabia has leveraged its infrastructure to mitigate the fallout. The kingdom’s East–West pipeline, which links eastern oil fields to the Red Sea coast, has the capacity to transport up to 7 million barrels per day to Yanbu. This logistical flexibility allows Saudi Arabia to avoid the deeper output curbs that countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates have had to implement due to their reliance on more constrained export corridors.

Out of the total pipeline capacity, approximately 5 million barrels per day are available for international shipments, while the remaining volume is directed toward domestic refining operations. This allocation underscores the dual priority of sustaining export revenues while ensuring internal energy supply stability, as confirmed by Saudi Aramco earlier in March.

Shipping schedules indicate that nearly 70 tankers are expected to load crude at Yanbu during the month, with a significant portion still en route to the terminal. The bulk of these cargoes is destined for Asian markets, where demand remains robust. China leads the import list, accounting for roughly 2.2 million barrels per day, highlighting its continued dependence on Middle Eastern crude supplies.

Operational data reveals a steady escalation in loading volumes at Yanbu. Average daily shipments have reached 2.6 million barrels so far in March, a notable jump from 1.4 million barrels per day in February and 1.3 million barrels per day in January. This upward trajectory reflects both logistical adjustments and shifting trade flows in response to geopolitical disruptions.

To maximize throughput, Saudi Aramco has deployed drag-reducing agents (DRA), specialized chemicals that minimize friction within pipelines and accelerate crude flow. Industry sources indicate that this technique can increase flow rates by 30 percent or more, providing a critical efficiency boost during periods of heightened demand.

The primary producers of these chemical agents are the United States and China. However, current assessments suggest that Saudi Arabia maintains sufficient reserves of DRA, ensuring that pipeline optimization efforts are not constrained by supply shortages.

Prior to the conflict, Saudi Arabia shipped approximately 6 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of this vital chokepoint in late February significantly altered export dynamics. Concurrently, national output declined by around 2 million barrels per day, or roughly 20 percent, following production cutbacks at key offshore fields.

While the Red Sea corridor offers an alternative pathway, it is not without risks. The presence of Yemen’s Houthi forces has previously posed threats to maritime traffic, particularly during the Israel–Hamas conflict in Gaza, when attacks disrupted shipping lanes.

Despite earlier concerns, recent reports indicate an improvement in regional security conditions. No new attacks have been recorded since the onset of the Iran-related hostilities. According to naval monitoring data, vessel traffic through the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has rebounded to typical levels, with approximately 40 ship transits observed within a 24-hour period.