Air Cargo Demand Keeps Growing Sharply Into Q2

Data for the global air cargo markets for April 2024 was issued by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), and it demonstrated substantial annual growth in demand through the second quarter (Q2). Cargo tonne-kilometres, a measure of total demand, increased by 11.1% from April 2023 levels (11.6% for international operations). For the fifth month in a row, year-over-year growth has been double digits. Available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), a measure of capacity, increased by 7.1% from April 2023 (10.2% for international operations).

“Air cargo demand started Q2 with a solid 11.1% increase. While many economic uncertainties remain, it appears that the roots of air cargo’s strong performance are deepening. In recent months, air cargo demand grew even when the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was indicating the potential for contraction. With the PMI now indicating growth, the prospects for continued strong demand are even more robust,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Statistics in Operations

Several factors in the operating environment should be noted. In April, the PMIs for global manufacturing output and new export orders turned positive, with values of 51.5 and 50.5, respectively. This marks the first time in two years that the new export orders PMI has been in growth territory. Industrial production saw a year-on-year increase of 1.6% in March, while global cross-border trade contracted by 0.8%. Inflation remained relatively stable across the US, EU, and Japan in April, with rates at 3.4%, 2.6%, and 2.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, China reported a modest 0.2% increase in consumer prices year-on-year, a positive sign amid ongoing concerns over China's economic slowdown.

Performance Chart in April

In April, the regional performance of airlines varied significantly.

- Asia-Pacific airlines experienced a robust 14.0% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo, the strongest among all regions. Within the Asia market, demand grew by 13.2% compared to April 2023, and the Asia-Europe route saw an impressive 17.7% growth. The Middle East-Asia route also rose by 10.4%, though this was 9.5 percentage points (ppt) less than the growth recorded in March. Capacity in the Asia-Pacific region increased by 7.8% year-on-year.

- North American carriers reported a 7.0% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in April, the weakest among all regions. Demand on the Asia-North America trade lane grew by 7.3% year-on-year, while the North America-Europe route saw a 5.6% increase, marking the largest demand growth for this route since September 2022. Capacity in North America increased by 4.0% year-on-year.

- European carriers saw a 12.7% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in April. Intra-European air cargo rose by 34.4% compared to April 2023, reflecting the highest annual growth in over a decade and an 8.1ppt increase compared to the previous month. Europe-Middle East routes saw demand increase by 30.1%, though this represented an 8.5ppt drop compared to the previous month’s figure. Capacity in Europe increased by 10.3% year-on-year.

- Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 9.4% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in April. The Middle East-Europe market performed particularly well, with 30.1% annual growth, ahead of the Middle East-Asia market which grew by 10.4% year-on-year. Capacity in the Middle East increased by 5.7% year-on-year.

- Latin American carriers saw an 11.7% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in April, with capacity increasing by 9.8% year-on-year.

- African airlines reported a 10.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in April. The Africa-Asia market showed a significant increase of 25.8% compared to April 2023. Capacity in Africa increased by 18.7% year-on-year.