U.S.-Saudi Agreement: The Middle East Begins to Nuclearize

Saudi Arabia and the United States are currently engaged in intricate negotiations to forge a tripartite agreement encompassing the normalization of relations between the kingdom and Israel. The deal also involves diminishing Saudi-Chinese ties, all in exchange for a robust American security commitment to Riyadh, support for its civilian nuclear program, and a resolution to the longstanding issue of Palestine. This diplomatic endeavour has been the focal point of intense high-level discussions in Riyadh, with a target to finalize the agreement by the close of 2023. However, the intricacies of aligning US, Saudi, and Israeli interests may pose challenges to the realization of this agreement, particularly in the short term. Despite concerns about Iran and Saudi Arabia's willingness to open its airspace to Israeli commercial flights, the kingdom has thus far refrained from joining the 2020 Abraham Accords brokered by the Trump administration. These accords resulted in the normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco, with Sudan joining in 2021. Following Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud's expressed readiness to normalize relations with Israel in exchange for a comprehensive security deal with the United States, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's visit to Riyadh in May 2023 marked a renewed effort to facilitate this process. Subsequently, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Saudi Arabia in June to engage in discussions about the kingdom's conditions.

President Joe Biden tempered expectations of a swift agreement, citing Saudi demands, particularly concerning joint security issues, and tensions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government. Despite these challenges, Israeli Mossad chief David Barnea discreetly visited Washington in mid-July to assess the administration's efforts toward a comprehensive agreement with Saudi Arabia that includes normalization with Israel.

While the majority of Saudi conditions pertain to the United States, the kingdom is adamant about securing certain concessions from Israel on the Palestinian issue as a prerequisite for the agreement. National Security Advisor Sullivan returned to Riyadh at the end of July for discussions with Crown Prince MBS, focusing on bilateral and regional matters, with an emphasis on initiatives for a more peaceful and stable Middle East. President Biden acknowledged the potential for a "rapprochement" between Saudi Arabia and Israel during a campaign stop on July 28. Fahad Nazer, spokesperson for the Saudi embassy in Washington, stressed the importance of resolving the core dispute with the Palestinians for the kingdom to take steps toward normalization with Israel, highlighting the potential benefits in trade and cultural exchanges.