UAE Markets: Short-Term Volatility Meets Long-Term Strength

UAE equities ended the week lower as the widening conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran continued to weigh heavily on risk sentiment. Dubai and Abu Dhabi stocks slid further upon reopening on Wednesday, pressured by regional tensions after the two-day break.

The DFMGI reopened with a sharp selloff, posting its biggest drop since June last year and ended the week at its lowest level since early December. Banking and property stocks have been the largest drags as investors reassessed questioned whether the market had priced in too much resilience. The shift in perception followed missile and drone attacks on Dubai over the weekend, which undermined the idea that the city remained insulated from global tensions. The index has now recorded multiple consecutive days of losses, with declines accelerating as risk premiums widened across Middle Eastern assets.

Market volatility also picked up. DFM’s 30‑day price volatility rose to 23.31%, well above the one‑month average of 14.78%. For the ADX, 30‑day price volatility increased to 13.67%, above the one‑month average of 9.40%. The increased volatility signals broader nervousness.

The ADX General Index also weakened, marking a seventh straight day of declines and slipping to its softest close since December. The ongoing conflict, disruptions to airspace, pressure on digital services, and broader concerns about non‑oil sectors added to caution. While the UAE continues to benefit from strong sovereign reserves, equity markets have come under sustained pressure as investors recalibrate their view of regional stability and growth prospects.

DFM:

The DFM General Index fell for the fifth day, dropping 3.2%, or 197.49 to 5,917.22 in Dubai. The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Dec. 3. For the week, the index is down 9.01%.

Companies that moved the index lower were Emaar Properties PJSC (-96.910 pts, -13.89%), Emirates NBD Bank PJSC (-80.961, -10.91%), and Emaar Development PJSC (-69.505 pts, -13.95%). The only stock that supported the index was Dubai Insurance Co PJSC (+1.347 pts, +6.25%). (Source: Bloomberg)

In terms of sectors, all major sectors ended this week in the red. Among sectors that fell the most, Real Estate declined 13.15%, Financial and Industrials fell 8.78% and 8.68%. Among sectors that fell the least, Materials dropped 2.38%, Consumer Staples and Discretionary fell 3.47% and 4.84%. (Source: DFM Report Center)

National General Insurance and Orient Insurance PJSC reported this week. Orient Insurance reported a 14.4% jump in net profit for 2025, reaching AED 836 million, driven by a 21% surge in insurance revenue. For National General Insurance, their insurance revenue exceeded AED 1bn for the first time, a 16% increase over last year. Looking at earnings for next week, Gulf Navigation Holding PJSC are expected to report earnings on 10th March.

On the daily chart, the index trades below all major averages. In today's session it broke below 6000 levels, and closed at 5,917. The index should find support at 5,795, a level that has acted as support previously. Resistance for the index remains at the 200-day moving average of 6,038.

ADX:

The ADX General fell for the seventh day, dropping 1.4%, or 141.49 to 9,903.36 in Abu Dhabi. The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Dec. 3. For the week, the index is down 5.27%.

Among the top 20 stocks by market cap, the biggest laggards were Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, down –12.82%, Aldar Properties PJSC, falling –12.48%, and Abu Dhabi Ports Co PJSC, which slipped –10.60%, marking the weakest performances within the group. In contrast, notably Fertiglobe PLC was the only stock posting gains for the week, which rose +2.61%.

In terms of sector, Materials was the only sector to post green while all other sectors were in red. Materials increased by 1.93%. Real Estate emerged as the biggest laggard, down 14.54%, followed by Utilities (-9.78%), and Technology (-8.63%).

There were no major earnings announcements this week. However, focus now shifts to next week when Modon Holding PSC, MBME Group PJSC and Abu Dhabi Ports Co PJSC are scheduled to release their results next week.

Technically, the index closed right on the long‑term ascending trendline that has supported the uptrend since April 2025. This week's sharp pullback brought the index down through the major moving averages, leaving prices sitting on this key structural support. A clean break below the trendline would open room toward the 9,800 area, while holding this level keeps the broader uptrend technically intact for now.