Century Financial: Equities Dip, Oil Swings, Gold Firm

The S&P and Nasdaq indices were down more than 1% in yesterday’s session, led by a decline of almost 5% in the AI bellwether Nvidia. This came after their results beat analyst expectations but failed to ease investors’ concerns about the sustainability of big tech gains. In today’s session, the index remains marginally high as US Iran nuclear talks indicated progress in their Geneva talks yesterday. As we head into March, there are many headwinds for AI profitability, the private credit market, tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical issues. This has built a risk-averse sentiment within the markets. This trend is evident in the options markets, where the 1-month put-call SPX skew — the difference between 25 delta put and 25 delta call — has widened to nearly the 90th percentile over the past decade, signalling increased risk aversion. In simpler terms, the relative cost of buying downside protection in the S&P 500 versus betting on a rally to a fresh record has reached a one-year high, according to Cboe Global Markets. The market breadth indicates that the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average has created lower highs. It currently stands at 66%, with a peak of 73% reached this year in January.

Technically, the index is trading at $6,896 in today’s session, hovering around the 9- and 21-day SMAs at $6,886 and $6,894, respectively. The index didn’t hold yesterday’s $6,970 highs, and the daily timeframe shows a rising wedge pattern, a breakdown from which is bearish for the index. It is forming a rising wedge pattern connecting the highs of $6,895, $6,972, and $7,002; and the lows of $6,508, $6,767, and $6,820, respectively. The index may find support at the $6845 level, followed by the lower trendline of the rising wedge at $6820. A breakdown of $6,820 will hold negative for the index. Conversely, for the index to turn bullish, it has to decisively break and close above $6,970, followed by $7,000.

U.S. Dollar Index 

The U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.14% in yesterday’s session and is trading near 97.69 (-0.11%) today, as it struggles to find a clear direction after last week’s Supreme Court ruling that struck down much of President Trump’s tariff framework. Overall momentum remains fragile as markets continue to price lingering uncertainty around how the U.S. administration will rework trade policy, keeping pressure on the greenback.

The EURUSD pair is trading marginally higher near 1.1810, with investors awaiting German preliminary inflation data for fresh direction. Meanwhile, the yen has firmed after Tokyo CPI came in slightly above expectations and as Bank of Japan officials reiterated a cautious but hawkish bias. USDJPY has eased toward 156 as markets reassess the timing of further BOJ tightening.

Looking ahead, attention turns to U.S. PPI data, which could influence inflation expectations and the Fed’s policy outlook. With rates widely expected to remain on hold in March, the dollar is likely to stay range-bound, vulnerable to further trade headlines and shifts in global risk sentiment.

Technically, DXY is trading below its 50, 100, and 200-day EMA levels. The 20-day EMA at 97.57 is providing support, while the 50-day EMA at 97.87 may serve as resistance. For EUR/USD, resistance lies at 1.182, with support at the 50-day SMA level of 1.177.

Crude Oil 

WTI crude saw strong volatility in the last session. After facing resistance at $66.82, prices corrected and found support around $63.71, and the session closed slightly down by 0.18% at $65.56. Currently, crude is trading near $65.49, slightly down by 0.10%. The overall uptrend remains intact as long as WTI stays above $63.71.

On the geopolitical side, markets are reacting to the latest U.S.–Iran talks in Geneva. The U.S. has demanded that any new nuclear deal should be permanent and without expiry clauses. It has also asked Iran to give up its 10,000 kg stockpile of enriched uranium and shut down three main nuclear sites. While the U.S. is open to limited flexibility on uranium enrichment, it wants strict guarantees that Iran cannot develop a nuclear weapon. Sources suggest the U.S. team was not fully satisfied with the progress, while Iranian and Omani officials described the talks as constructive. Negotiations will continue next week in Vienna. Although this has reduced immediate fears of military action, the short timeline before President Trump’s early March deadline keeps uncertainty alive.

Even though some heat has come out of the market this week, oil prices are still higher for the year, generating returns above 14%, supported by concerns of a possible U.S. strike on Iran. Traders will also be keenly watching a scheduled OPEC+ supply meeting on Sunday, as conflict risks cloud the outlook.

Technically, WTI has immediate resistance at $66.82 and support at $63.71, both of which coincide with yesterday’s high and low, respectively. Further support is at the 200 Day SMA at the $62.97 level, and resistance at $67.41 (current week’s high). Brent is currently trading at $70.94; immediate resistance is at $72.28, and support is at $69.12, yesterday’s high and low, respectively.

Gold and Silver 

Gold is holding steady below the $5,200 threshold after the U.S. and Iran agreed to continue nuclear negotiations next week. However, the American military has built up its presence in the Middle East to the greatest extent since 2003, creating a risk of flare-up in tensions if talks don’t go well. Thus, the precious metal remains well on track to deliver its seventh consecutive monthly gain, marking its longest winning streak since 1973. Trade tariff uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are contributing to bullion’s gains, which are further supported by central bank purchases and ETF inflows at their highest since 2022. Yesterday, Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee stated that more rate cuts could materialise this year if inflation drops, while Fed Governor Stephen Miran expressed favour for rates to go down by a full percentage point. Gold is up 0.17% at $5,193, with immediate support at the psychologically significant $5,100 level, also roughly marked by the mid-Feb highs. A break below this level could see gold potentially plunge to $4,940, marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level connecting the late-October 2025 low to the late-January 2026 high. It faces immediate resistance around $5,250.

Silver-backed ETFs attracted inflows over the past week, despite the choppiness in recent weeks. Silver is gaining support from safe-haven demand as well. A structural supply deficit and strong industrial usage are adding further upside pressure. Rising cartel violence in Mexico is increasing supply-side risks, as the country produces about 25% of global silver output. Although there are no major shutdowns yet, prolonged disruptions in key mining regions could tighten supply and push prices higher in the near term. Silver is up 2.34% at $90.33, with immediate support at $85.26, followed by the next 50-day SMA support around $83.34. Sustained moves above $92.20 could pave the way for a leg up to $93.87.